Kalshi vs PredictIt
Both are legal, real-money venues for US traders, but under very different arrangements: Kalshi is a full CFTC-regulated exchange with no position caps; PredictIt operates under an academic/research no-action arrangement with small-dollar per-contract position limits.
Kalshi- Live Markets Tracked
- 200
- Tracked Volume
- $1.4M
PredictIt- Live Markets Tracked
- 200
- Tracked Volume
- not published
| Kalshi | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement | USD, bank-linked account | USD |
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market | Operates under an academic/research no-action arrangement, not a full CFTC-regulated exchange |
| Resolution | Kalshi's own settlement sources per contract rules | PredictIt's own rules, small-dollar per-contract position limits |
| Fees | round_up(0.07 × contracts × price × (1−price)) per trade — peaks near $1.75 per 100 contracts at a 50¢ price, published formula | Historically a fee on profits plus a withdrawal fee — check current terms, these have changed over time |
| US Access | US persons, KYC required | US-focused, small position caps per trader |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does PredictIt limit position sizes and Kalshi doesn’t?
PredictIt operates under an academic/research no-action arrangement, not a full CFTC-regulated exchange license — the position caps are a condition of that arrangement. Kalshi is a fully regulated Designated Contract Market with no such cap.
Which publishes real trading volume?
Kalshi does. PredictIt’s public API doesn’t expose trade volume at all, which is why any "volume" comparison involving PredictIt is necessarily one-sided — noted honestly below rather than estimated.