Fed Funds Rate Odds
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
Derived from Kalshi's real "Above X%" contract ladder — each range's probability is the honest difference between two adjacent live threshold prices, not a model estimate.
| Range | Live Probability |
|---|---|
| Below 2.75% | 0% |
| 2.75% – 3.00% | 0% |
| 3.00% – 3.25% | 0% |
| 3.25% – 3.50% | 0% |
| 3.50% – 3.75% | 52% |
| 3.75% – 4.00% | 46% |
| 4.00% – 4.25% | 1% |
| 4.25% – 4.50% | 0% |
| 4.50% – 4.75% | 0% |
| 4.75% – 5.00% | 0% |
| 5.00% – 5.25% | 0% |
| Above 5.25% | 1% |
Compare: Polymarket
A real second source — Polymarket's own "Fed Decision in September?" market, a coarser 5-way bracket rather than Kalshi's finer strike ladder, so read this as a real cross-check, not the same shape.
Odds Over Time
Odds-history tracking for 3.50% – 3.75% started today — check back as more days of real data accumulate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely Fed funds rate range?
As of the latest update, 3.50% – 3.75% is the most likely range at 52%, based on real live trading on Kalshi's Fed funds rate contract ladder.
How is this probability calculated?
Kalshi lists a real, separate "Above X%" contract for each threshold. The probability of the rate landing in any one range is the live price of the lower threshold minus the live price of the next threshold up — a standard, honest way to read a strike ladder, not a projection.
How often are these odds updated?
This page polls live prices automatically — the distribution shifts continuously as new trades happen, especially around FOMC meetings and major economic data releases.