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Best AI Model Leaderboard

Real, live odds each AI lab has the single best model — every tracked lab ranked on the same real question, for every real period Polymarket is currently running this contract family for.

Based on real, live prediction-market prices, Anthropic is favored at 99.00% to have the single best AI model by the end of August 2026, 98.4pt ahead of OpenAI — drawn from 570 live AI markets tracking $559.6K in real 24h volume.

Type
Time

Overall AI Leader Recognition

every real tracked period, volume & recency-weighted
How this score is calculated

Not just the nearest resolution date — every real period Polymarket runs this "single best AI model" contract for, combined with a real volume-weighted average that also discounts each period by how far out it resolves (a period backed by more real trading pulls the score toward it more, but a heavily-traded contract months away still can't fully outvote a thinly-traded one resolving imminently — the score stays anchored to who's actually favored right now). A lab genuinely closing on the leader fast — a real, rising 1-week change in the soonest tracked period — also gets a small, capped boost toward the leader before the blend runs, so a fast-moving real challenger doesn't score as far behind as a flat one sitting at the same raw probability; it can never fabricate a lead or overtake the real leader on trend alone. The period-by-period table below shows the same underlying real contracts broken out one date at a time, unadjusted.

Ranked By August 2026

9 labs tracked
4
ByteDance−98.95pt to lead
0.05%
6
Moonshot−98.95pt to lead
0.05%
7
Z.ai−98.95pt to lead
0.05%
8
Alibaba−98.95pt to lead
1D▲0.10
0.05%

How Odds Differ By Month

4 real periods tracked

Today's real live odds for the single best AI model contract, across every real resolution month Polymarket is currently running it for — not a historical trend, a side-by-side read of whether each lab's lead holds up further out or fades.

AnthropicOpenAIGoogleByteDanceMetaMoonshot
Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 04Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25NovemberNov 08Nov 15Nov 22Nov 290102030405060708090100%68.50%ANTHROPIC6.10%OPENAI4.95%GOOGLE1.30%META0.65%MOONSHOT0.30%BYTEDANCE

How The Race Is Changing

Not enough archived history yet for a trend chart — 5 real days recorded, 7 required. Check back as more days record.

Lead Changes

2026-08-22Anthropictook the lead

Forecast Accuracy — Scored Before the Market Closed

Every figure here is scored against the price the market was genuinely showing a set time before it resolved — recovered from Polymarket's own order-book price history, not from the settled closing price. A settled market already knows the answer, so scoring it measures nothing.

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Every Live AI Market, Organized

AGI & Singularity Timing1 market · $282 24h volFull Page →
Model Rankings (Best AI Model/Lab)283 markets · $275.3K 24h volFull Page →
Model Releases60 markets · $175.6K 24h volFull Page →
Benchmark & Leaderboard Scores76 markets · $32.0K 24h volFull Page →
Compute & Hardware Pricing50 markets · $28.9K 24h volFull Page →
Company Valuation & IPO50 markets · $32.5K 24h volFull Page →
Other AI Markets50 markets · $15.0K 24h vol

Frequently Asked Questions

Which AI company is #1 right now?

Based on real, live prediction-market prices, Anthropic is currently favored at 99.00% to have the single best AI model by the end of August 2026.

Why does the leaderboard change by period?

Polymarket runs this exact "best AI model" contract for several real resolution dates at once — a lab favored to lead by the nearest date isn't necessarily favored to still be ahead months later, so each period gets its own real, independently-ranked leaderboard rather than one blended number.

How are the other AI markets grouped?

By theme (model-ranking contracts, new-model releases, benchmark/leaderboard scores, compute/hardware pricing, and company valuation/IPO markets) or by which lab a question names — both derived automatically from each market's real question text, not manually curated.

Does this measure app usage or downloads?

No — no platform this site tracks publishes usage-share data. This reflects real money traders are staking on which lab's model will actually be judged best, not popularity.

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