AI · Polymarket

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 34%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

33.00%

Model projection: 23.2% in 14d (15.6–33.1%)-0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 67% on "Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?", backed by $21 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $21
Momentum: -0.02pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.0¢ (6.1%)

Mid Price

33.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$3,962

Bid/Ask Imbalance

11% bid

Bids (Buy)

32.0¢206

31.0¢575

30.0¢250

29.0¢250

28.0¢40

21.0¢33

20.0¢20

2.0¢103

Asks (Sell)

34.0¢91

35.0¢68

36.0¢272

38.0¢60

39.0¢126

41.0¢18

44.0¢50

46.0¢30

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

35.12¢+3.30%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

65.97¢+94.04%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

86.50¢+154.42%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 33.00%, based on $21 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.