Economics Markets
Real, live probabilities for the macro questions that move markets — Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, inflation (CPI) prints, GDP growth, unemployment, and recession odds — aggregated across every platform we track, not a single source's house view.
Macro Snapshot — Real FRED Data
Probability Distribution
PolymarketWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketFed rate hike in 2026?
no history published
PolymarketFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
no history published
PolymarketFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
no history published
PolymarketWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
no history published
Between 0.3% and 0.7% — Brazil’s GDP growth rate for Q2-2026
no history published
0.2% or less — Brazil’s GDP growth rate for Q2-2026
no history published
Between 0.8% and 1.2% — Brazil’s GDP growth rate for Q2-2026
no history published
1.3% or more — Brazil’s GDP growth rate for Q2-2026
no history published
KalshiWill there be a recession in 2027?
no history published
KalshiBefore Oct 1, 2026 — When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
no history published
KalshiBefore Jul 1, 2027 — When will Oura Health Oy officially announce an IPO?
no history published
Between 82.1% and 87.0% — Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
no history published
Between 77.1% and 82.0% — Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
no history published
Between 87.1% and 92.0% — Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
no history published
92.1% or more — Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
no history published
77% or less — Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026
no history published
Above 20,000 — US nonfarm payrolls — August 2026
no history published
Above 30,000 — US nonfarm payrolls — August 2026
no history published
Above 40,000 — US nonfarm payrolls — August 2026
no history published
See all 46 Economics markets →
Frequently Asked Questions
What kinds of economics markets does PredictRankd track?
Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, CPI/inflation prints, GDP growth, unemployment reports, and recession-probability questions — every real, live contract tagged Economics across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, and Futuur, currently 46 live markets.
How is this different from a Fed funds futures curve?
A CME Fed funds futures curve is priced by institutional traders in a regulated derivatives market. These are real-money prediction-market contracts — a different (often smaller, more retail-driven) pool of capital pricing the same real-world event, useful as an independent cross-check rather than a replacement.
How often do these odds update?
This page polls live prices automatically every 90 seconds — the odds shift continuously as new trades happen, especially around FOMC meetings and major economic data releases (CPI, jobs reports, GDP).