2028 Presidential Election
Real, live prediction-market odds for the White House — every tracked candidate in both parties' nominations, plus the general election, ranked by real trading probability across every platform we track.
Frontrunner Odds Over Time
Odds-history tracking for Vance started today — check back as more days of real data accumulate.
Democratic Nomination
18 tracked candidates| HHarris | 8.50% | PredictIt |
| BButtigieg | 5.50% | PredictIt |
| BBeshear | 5.50% | PredictIt |
| SShapiro | 5.50% | PredictIt |
| KKelly | 5.50% | PredictIt |
| EEmanuel | 4.50% | PredictIt |
| PPritzker | 3.50% | PredictIt |
| KKhanna | 3.50% | PredictIt |
| WWhitmer | 2.50% | PredictIt |
| MMoore | 2.50% | PredictIt |
| BBooker | 1.50% | PredictIt |
| GGallego | 1.50% | PredictIt |
| SSmith | 1.00% | PredictIt |
| SSlotkin | 1.00% | PredictIt |
 Chris Murphy | 0.45% | Polymarket |
Republican Nomination
15 tracked candidates
 Trump Jr. | 4.50% | PredictIt |
| DDeSantis | 4.00% | PredictIt |
| KKemp | 2.50% | PredictIt |
 Youngkin | 2.50% | PredictIt |
| CCarlson | 2.50% | PredictIt |
 Cruz | 1.50% | PredictIt |
 MTG | 1.50% | PredictIt |
| GGabbard | 1.00% | PredictIt |
 Noem | 1.00% | PredictIt |
 Hegseth | 1.00% | PredictIt |
| PPaul | 1.00% | PredictIt |
 Ted Cruz | 0.95% | Polymarket |
General Election
41 tracked candidates
 Marco Rubio | 18.50% | Kalshi |
 AOCD | 12.50% | PredictIt |
| RRubioR | 10.50% | PredictIt |
| OOssoffD | 10.50% | PredictIt |
| NNewsomD | 8.50% | PredictIt |
 Ron DeSantis | 4.80% | Kalshi |
| SShapiroD | 4.50% | PredictIt |
| HHarrisD | 4.50% | PredictIt |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3.55% | Kalshi |
| BButtigiegD | 3.50% | PredictIt |
| BBeshearD | 3.50% | PredictIt |
 Tucker Carlson | 3.30% | Kalshi |
| TrumpR | 2.50% | PredictIt |
| PPritzkerD | 2.50% | PredictIt |
 Abdul El-Sayed | 1.50% | Kalshi |
| WWhitmerD | 1.50% | PredictIt |
| Ted CruzR | 1.45% | Kalshi |
 Thomas Massie | 1.05% | Kalshi |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.00% | Kalshi |
| Pete Hegseth | 1.00% | Kalshi |
 Shawn Fain | 1.00% | Kalshi |
 Ivanka Trump | 1.00% | Kalshi |
| GGabbardR | 1.00% | PredictIt |
 Brian Kemp | 0.75% | Kalshi |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.75% | Kalshi |
 Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.60% | Kalshi |
 Nikki Haley | 0.35% | Kalshi |
Photographs via Wikipedia/Wikimedia Commons. Individual images are Public Domain or CC BY-SA; hover any photo for its own license and author.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
As of the latest update, Vance is the overall favorite among tracked presidential markets at 45.50%, based on real live trading.
How are these odds different from a poll?
Every number here is a real, live contract price — what traders are actually paying to bet on that outcome — not a survey of voter opinion. Prediction markets fold in real money incentives, not just stated preference.
Why are nomination and general election odds shown separately?
They're genuinely different real questions — a candidate can be a heavy favorite for their own party's nomination while still an underdog in the general election matchup, so mixing them into one ranked list would misrepresent both races.