Politics Markets

Real, live probabilities for elections, party control, and policy outcomes — aggregated across every platform we track, including Smarkets, a UK-regulated exchange most US aggregators don't cover.

2028 Presidential Election — 36 live marketsFull coverage →

Polymarket

0.15%

Kalshi · 145Smarkets · 107Polymarket · 27Manifold · 8

Probability Distribution

0%287 markets · median 3%100%

Polymarket

0.15%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

0.15%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $1.5M

Polymarket

0.25%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.25%Live price only —
no history published

Will Abdul El-Sayed be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

1.5%Live price only —
no history published

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

0.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

3.45%Live price only —
no history published

Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

0.1%Live price only —
no history published

Trump out as President by August 31?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

98.10%Live price only —
no history published

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

87.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $152.5K

Polymarket

0.05%

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $118.0K

Kalshi

0.1%

Will Andrew Yang be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

0.1%Live price only —
no history published

Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

1.6%Live price only —
no history published

Will Jared Polis be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

0.1%Live price only —
no history published

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

2.65%Live price only —
no history published

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

24.35%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $81.5K

Kalshi

0.1%

Will Nicki Minaj be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

0.1%Live price only —
no history published

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

11.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

13.5%Live price only —
no history published

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

13.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $76.1K

Kalshi

0.1%

Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

0.1%Live price only —
no history published

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

57.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

37.65%Live price only —
no history published

Will Pete Hegseth be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

0.8%Live price only —
no history published

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

73.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $62.6K

See all 287 Politics markets →

Frequently Asked Questions

What kinds of politics markets does PredictRankd track?

Elections, party control of Congress, and policy questions — every real, live contract tagged Politics across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, and Smarkets, currently 287 live markets.

Why is Smarkets included here but not other categories?

Smarkets is a real, UK Gambling Commission-licensed betting exchange, but the markets we track from it are a curated list scoped to UK, US, and Irish politics specifically — it doesn't publish sports, finance, or entertainment contracts the way the other five platforms do.

How often do these odds update?

This page polls live prices automatically every 90 seconds — political markets can move fast around debates, polling releases, and breaking news.

Which platform has the most Politics markets right now?

Right now, Kalshi has the most live Politics markets we track (145), followed by Smarkets (107), Polymarket (27), Manifold (8).