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Politics · Polymarket

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
40.15%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 1320253035404550%40.15%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 44.0% in 14d (42.4–45.6%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$126.8K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (0.2%)
Mid Price
40.2¢
Total Depth
$12,849,945
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
40.1¢97
40.0¢2,160
39.9¢1,128
39.8¢1,113
39.6¢2,240
39.5¢1,005
39.4¢1,458
39.3¢8,804
Asks (Sell)
40.2¢535
40.3¢260
40.4¢40
40.5¢1,069
40.6¢1,500
40.7¢1,105
40.8¢1,495
40.9¢1,163
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
40.20¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
40.44¢+0.59%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
41.15¢+2.35%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 8 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
55.50%
Flávio BolsonaroViewing
40.15%
Renan Santos
2.25%
Augusto Cury
2.20%
Jair Bolsonaro
0.15%
Ronaldo Caiado
0.15%
Geraldo Alckmin
0.05%
Romeu Zema
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2026 PS–Place Publique presidential primary?
73.00%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 40.15%, based on $126.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.