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Politics · Polymarket

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
55.50%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13485052545658606264666870%55.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 53.7% in 14d (51.0–56.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$111.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.8%)
Mid Price
55.5¢
Total Depth
$2,427,675
Bid/Ask Imbalance
10% bid
Bids (Buy)
55.0¢58,767
54.0¢109,452
53.0¢196,146
52.0¢20,436
51.0¢20,200
50.0¢4,567
49.0¢1,939
48.0¢105
Asks (Sell)
56.0¢49,174
57.0¢49,402
58.0¢61,289
59.0¢11,507
60.0¢7,441
61.0¢7,495
62.0¢9,811
63.0¢41,634
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
56.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
56.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
56.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 8 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaViewing
55.50%
Flávio Bolsonaro
40.15%
Renan Santos
2.25%
Augusto Cury
2.20%
Jair Bolsonaro
0.15%
Ronaldo Caiado
0.15%
Geraldo Alckmin
0.05%
Romeu Zema
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2026 PS–Place Publique presidential primary?
73.00%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 55.50%, based on $111.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.