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Politics · Polymarket

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
2.25%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13024681012%2.25%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 1.6% in 14d (1.2–2.0%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$104.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (4.4%)
Mid Price
2.3¢
Total Depth
$22,659,116
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
2.2¢20,602
2.1¢8,020
2.0¢7,680
1.9¢13,138
1.8¢17,269
1.7¢29,695
1.6¢33,736
1.5¢20,382
Asks (Sell)
2.3¢9,656
2.4¢11,020
2.5¢30
2.6¢1,865
2.7¢10,007
2.8¢159
2.9¢1,330
3.0¢11,978
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
2.30¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
2.56¢+11.20%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
4.83¢+110.03%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 8 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
55.50%
Flávio Bolsonaro
40.15%
Renan SantosViewing
2.25%
Augusto Cury
2.20%
Jair Bolsonaro
0.15%
Ronaldo Caiado
0.15%
Geraldo Alckmin
0.05%
Romeu Zema
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2026 PS–Place Publique presidential primary?
73.00%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 2.25%, based on $104.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.