ChatGPT / OpenAI
Real, live prediction-market odds on OpenAI and ChatGPT — model releases, benchmark results, and model-leadership odds.
87
Live markets tracked
$117.3K
Real 24h volume
6
Categories active
Best AI Model — By August 2026
Full Leaderboard →0.35%
Real, live odds OpenAI has the single best AI model by the end of August 2026, based on real trading — not app downloads or usage share, which no platform we track publishes.
Vs. The Field — Best AI Model by August 2026
1Anthropic
99.60%
2OpenAI
0.35%
3Google
0.10%
4ByteDance
0.05%
5xAI
0.05%
6Z.ai
0.05%
Not enough archived history yet for a trend chart — 6 real days recorded, 7 required. Check back as more days record.
★ Model Releases
22 markets · $60.4K 24h volBy Aug 31, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by August 31, 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by August 31, 2026?By Sep 15, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?By Sep 15, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?By Nov 30, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?By Nov 30, 2026Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?By Nov 30, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
0.45%
1.65%
3.00%+3233
2.90%+3348
68.00%-213
39.50%+153
50.00%-100
86.00%-614
48.50%+106
68.00%-213
23.00%+335
92.50%-1233
20.50%+388
63.50%-174
51.50%-106
62.50%-167
7.50%+1233
43.50%+130
23.50%+326
62.50%-167
28.50%+251
72.50%-264
Company Valuation & IPO
36 markets · $25.3K 24h volBy Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Jan 1, 2027Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Dec 30, 2027Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Dec 31, 2027Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of October 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of September 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $900B and $1.00T at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of October 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of September 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?By Jan 1, 2027Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
13.50%+641
0.15%
93.50%-1438
58.60%-142
95.30%-2028
5.10%+1861
11.05%+805
14.50%+590
1.00%
30.50%+228
16.50%+506
30.50%+228
9.00%+1011
5.10%+1861
69.00%-223
29.50%+239
0.45%
66.50%-199
9.50%+953
35.50%+182
3.05%+3179
0.15%
0.30%
0.15%
0.15%
7.00%+1329
20.00%+400
30.00%+233
11.00%+809
7.50%+1233
10.50%+852
5.00%+1900
5.00%+1900
9.60%+942
5.00%+1900
21.00%+376
Model Rankings (Best AI Model/Lab)
15 markets · $24.0K 24h volBy Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?By Aug 31, 2026Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
0.35%
3.45%+2799
6.50%+1438
78.50%-365
14.50%+590
1.15%
10.20%+880
12.00%+733
6.65%+1404
0.05%
1.35%
11.00%+809
0.15%
2.50%+3900
0.90%
Benchmark & Leaderboard Scores
12 markets · $6.8K 24h volBy Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?By Dec 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?By Oct 31, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?By Dec 31, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
31.00%+223
54.50%-120
31.75%+215
66.50%-199
36.50%+174
38.00%+163
27.50%+264
57.50%-135
8.50%+1076
36.50%+174
96.00%-2400
87.50%-700
AGI & Singularity Timing
1 market · $375 24h volOther AI Markets
1 market · $363 24h volFrequently Asked Questions
Where do these ChatGPT / OpenAI odds come from?
Real, live prices from Polymarket — the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on each question, aggregated automatically by real question text, not manually curated.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule.
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