Grok / xAI
Real, live prediction-market odds on xAI and Grok — model releases, benchmark results, and model-leadership odds.
24
Live markets tracked
$22.7K
Real 24h volume
2
Categories active
Best AI Model — By September 2026
Full Leaderboard →0.35%
Real, live odds xAI has the single best AI model by the end of September 2026, based on real trading — not app downloads or usage share, which no platform we track publishes.
Vs. The Field — Best AI Model by September 2026
1Anthropic
90.50%
2OpenAI
6.70%
3Google
2.35%
4xAI
0.35%
5Z.ai
0.25%
6Alibaba
0.20%
Not enough archived history yet for a trend chart — 7 real days recorded, 7 required. Check back as more days record.
★ Model Rankings (Best AI Model/Lab)
17 markets · $18.9K 24h volBy Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
0.35%
0.50%
6.90%+1349
1.05%
1.30%
0.15%
1.00%
0.45%
1.30%
0.15%
1.00%
0.15%
0.50%
4.55%+2098
4.45%+2147
0.60%
0.85%
Benchmark & Leaderboard Scores
7 markets · $3.8K 24h volBy Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?By Oct 31, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?By Dec 31, 2026Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?By Sep 30, 2026Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?
70.95%-244
56.00%-127
23.00%+335
0.05%
0.35%
35.50%+182
1.00%
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do these Grok / xAI odds come from?
Real, live prices from Polymarket — the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on each question, aggregated automatically by real question text, not manually curated.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule.
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