Super Bowl OddsSB LXI
Real, live title odds for every NFL team, sourced directly from Polymarket — not a sportsbook. Updated continuously as real money trades. Where available, we also show a real Manifold (play-money) comparison alongside it.
$47.7M in real volume traded across 32 live super bowl contractsLive as of 12:22 AM
Market Composition
Market total: 105.2%Each team's real share of the field right now — segment width is that team's probability relative to every other live contract combined, not a raw percentage of the bar. Hover a segment for the exact number.
| # | Team | Live Title Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 15.50% +5451D▼0.50 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 8.50% +10761D▼0.50 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 7.50% +12331D▼0.50 |
| 4 |  Baltimore Ravens | 7.35% +12611D▲0.30 |
| 5 |  Kansas City Chiefs | 6.35% +14751D▲0.30 |
| 6 |  Dallas Cowboys | 4.95% +19201D▼1.00 |
| 7 |  Denver Broncos | 4.85% +19621D▼1.20 |
| 8 |  Houston Texans | 4.75% +2005 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Chargers | 4.55% +2098 |
| 10 |  Philadelphia Eagles | 4.45% +2147 |
| 11 |  Detroit Lions | 3.95% +2432 |
| 12 |  San Francisco 49ers | 3.95% +2432 |
| 13 |  Cincinnati Bengals | 3.85% +2497 |
| 14 |  New England Patriots | 3.45% +2799 |
| 15 |  Chicago Bears | 3.35% +2885 |
| 16 |  Green Bay Packers | 3.05% +3179 |
| 17 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.05% +3179 |
| 18 |  Minnesota Vikings | 1.35% |
| 19 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.15% |
| 20 |  Indianapolis Colts | 1.05% |
| 21 |  New York Giants | 1.05% |
| 22 |  Miami Dolphins | 0.95% |
| 23 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.85% |
| 24 |  Washington Commanders | 0.85% |
| 25 |  Cleveland Browns | 0.65% |
| 26 |  New Orleans Saints | 0.65% |
| 27 |  New York Jets | 0.65% |
| 28 |  Tennessee Titans | 0.65% |
| 29 |  Arizona Cardinals | 0.55% |
| 30 |  Carolina Panthers | 0.55% |
| 31 |  Atlanta Falcons | 0.45% |
| 32 |  Las Vegas Raiders | 0.35% |
Path to the Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills14.50%Los Angeles Rams23.00%Los Angeles Rams78.50%Los Angeles Rams15.50%Real AFC Championship Odds
A separate, real Kalshi market — who wins the AFC before advancing to the Super Bowl.
Kalshi and Polymarket average 0.7pt apart on the teams both price.
Odds Over Time
BuffaloBaltimoreKansas CityLos Angeles CHoustonReal NFC Championship Odds
A separate, real Kalshi market — who wins the NFC before advancing to the Super Bowl.
Kalshi and Polymarket average 0.6pt apart on the teams both price.
Odds Over Time
Los Angeles RSeattlePhiladelphiaDallasDetroitReal Playoff Qualifiers Odds
A separate, real Kalshi market — who wins the Playoff Qualifiers before advancing to the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Rams Forecast
Holding steadyA real trend line fit to Los Angeles Rams's own recent real daily odds, projected forward with a confidence band that widens the further out it looks — a mechanical statistical read on the real data, not a claim to know what happens next. See "How to read championship futures odds" below for the honest limits of any forecast like this.
Odds Over Time
Real daily odds for every team that's cracked the top 5 — one recorded point per real day this page's data has been tracked, no interpolation across gaps.
Los Angeles RamsBuffalo BillsSeattle SeahawksBaltimore RavensKansas City ChiefsLongest Shots
The lowest-priced real contracts on the board right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
As of the latest update, Los Angeles Rams is favored at 15.50%, based on real live trading on Polymarket.
Where do these super bowl odds come from?
Real, live prices from Polymarket — not a sportsbook line. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that team winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a sportsbook line update has.
Are the Los Angeles Rams favored to win the Super Bowl?
Yes — the Los Angeles Rams are currently the favorite at 15.50%, the highest live title probability of any team.
Are the Buffalo Bills favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Buffalo Bills are currently priced at 8.50% to win the Super Bowl, behind the current favorite, the Los Angeles Rams, at 15.50%.
Are the Seattle Seahawks favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Seattle Seahawks are currently priced at 7.50% to win the Super Bowl, behind the current favorite, the Los Angeles Rams, at 15.50%.
NFL Standings
The real, official current record — distinct from the live market odds above on who's favored to win.
American Football Conference
Buffalo Bills0-0Cincinnati Bengals0-0Cleveland Browns0-0Denver Broncos0-0Tennessee Titans0-0Indianapolis Colts0-0Kansas City Chiefs0-0Las Vegas Raiders0-0Miami Dolphins0-0New England Patriots0-0New York Jets0-0Pittsburgh Steelers0-0Los Angeles Chargers0-0Jacksonville Jaguars0-0Baltimore Ravens0-0Houston Texans0-0National Football Conference
Atlanta Falcons0-0Chicago Bears0-0Dallas Cowboys0-0Detroit Lions0-0Green Bay Packers0-0Los Angeles Rams0-0Minnesota Vikings0-0New Orleans Saints0-0New York Giants0-0Philadelphia Eagles0-0Arizona Cardinals0-0San Francisco 49ers0-0Seattle Seahawks0-0Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-0Washington Commanders0-0Carolina Panthers0-0Other Championships
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