AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 80%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

85.05%

Model projection: 86.4% in 14d (81.7–90.1%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 85.05% on "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?", backed by $7.3K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $7.3K
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

0.1¢ (0.1%)

Mid Price

85.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$56,215

Bid/Ask Imbalance

11% bid

Bids (Buy)

85.0¢67

84.1¢35

82.0¢120

81.9¢20

81.7¢20

81.0¢506

80.1¢181

80.0¢500

Asks (Sell)

85.1¢4,511

85.4¢20

85.5¢20

87.0¢20

87.1¢20

87.6¢864

88.8¢100

90.0¢21

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

85.10¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

85.10¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

90.21¢+6.01%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

77.84%

Same bet?

Similar AI Markets

Manifold

77.84%-351

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

77.84%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 58 Mana

Manifold

58.12%-139

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 334 Mana

Polymarket

0.05%

Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $102.4K

Manifold

85.40%-585

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

85.40%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 1.8K Mana

Limitless

59.00%-144

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily

59.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $27.3K

Manifold

14.86%+573

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

14.86%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 658 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 85.05%, based on $7.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.