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AI · Polymarket

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
87.50%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 136065707580859095100%87.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 86.6% in 14d (75.2–93.2%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$20
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (3.4%)
Mid Price
87.5¢
Total Depth
$2,764
Bid/Ask Imbalance
47% bid
Bids (Buy)
86.0¢582
85.0¢104
82.0¢40
78.0¢9
77.0¢9
76.0¢9
75.0¢39
62.0¢6
Asks (Sell)
89.0¢262
90.0¢151
91.0¢20
94.0¢20
95.0¢11
96.0¢266
97.0¢124
98.0¢301
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
89.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
93.80¢+5.39%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
95.31¢+7.09%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?
78.36%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 87.50%, based on $20 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.