AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?

62.00%

Model projection: 62.8% in 14d (51.5–72.8%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 62% on "Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?", backed by $120 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $120
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

4.0¢ (6.5%)

Mid Price

62.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$754

Bid/Ask Imbalance

26% bid

Bids (Buy)

60.0¢62

59.0¢60

58.0¢10

57.0¢20

54.0¢37

53.0¢40

51.0¢20

50.0¢20

Asks (Sell)

64.0¢86

66.0¢177

69.0¢95

70.0¢20

72.0¢29

75.0¢20

90.0¢100

91.0¢5

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

64.89¢+1.39%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

78.53¢+22.71%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

$10,000 order

78.53¢+22.71%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

84.14%

Same bet?

Similar AI Markets

Manifold

84.14%-531

OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

84.14%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 142 Mana

Manifold

30.67%+226

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

30.67%Live price only —
no history published

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

88.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $42.0K

Manifold

56.14%-128

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

56.14%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 35 Mana

Manifold

50.00%-100

Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model

50.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Manifold

84.79%-557

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

84.79%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 460 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 62.00%, based on $120 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.