Skip to content
Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
AI · Polymarket

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
50.00%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 133540455055606570%50.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 50.6% in 14d (45.2–55.9%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$673
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (4.0%)
Mid Price
50.0¢
Total Depth
$6,658
Bid/Ask Imbalance
19% bid
Bids (Buy)
49.0¢125
48.0¢500
42.0¢17
40.0¢900
39.0¢90
33.0¢21
32.0¢22
31.0¢36
Asks (Sell)
51.0¢160
52.0¢95
53.0¢40
54.0¢100
56.0¢100
57.0¢16
58.0¢100
59.0¢17
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
51.18¢+0.36%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
61.61¢+20.80%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
86.91¢+70.42%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?
78.36%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 50.00%, based on $673 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.