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AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
19.85%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13051015202530354045%19.85%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 20.2% in 14d (9.5–38.1%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$74
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.7¢ (8.6%)
Mid Price
19.9¢
Total Depth
$2,362
Bid/Ask Imbalance
2% bid
Bids (Buy)
19.0¢142
13.5¢20
6.3¢8
6.2¢65
6.1¢5
5.3¢5
1.2¢5
1.1¢13
Asks (Sell)
20.7¢38
21.0¢38
21.9¢5
22.0¢130
23.0¢35
24.9¢179
34.3¢12
34.4¢10
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
23.23¢+12.20%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
72.31¢+249.31%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
85.81¢+314.56%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
84.14%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 19.85%, based on $74 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.