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AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
21.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13152025303540%21.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 19.6% in 14d (16.7–22.9%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$24.4K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (4.7%)
Mid Price
21.5¢
Total Depth
$11,674
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
21.0¢5
19.0¢37
18.0¢729
17.0¢340
15.0¢25
14.0¢50
13.0¢62
12.0¢65
Asks (Sell)
22.0¢129
23.0¢511
24.0¢20
25.0¢15
26.0¢20
27.0¢19
29.0¢321
30.0¢505
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
22.71¢+3.21%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
31.00¢+40.92%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
72.12¢+227.80%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 21.50%, based on $24.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.