Economics · Polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 50%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

43.50%

Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-07-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 42.0% in 14d (28.9–56.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 56.5% on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?", backed by $1.8M in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $1.8M
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (2.3%)

Mid Price

43.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$1,870,644

Bid/Ask Imbalance

17% bid

Bids (Buy)

43.0¢46,568

42.0¢93,699

41.0¢330,881

40.0¢82,543

39.0¢51,435

38.0¢81,188

37.0¢20,135

36.0¢1,780

Asks (Sell)

44.0¢39,818

45.0¢75,812

46.0¢23,436

47.0¢66,046

48.0¢34,517

49.0¢17,170

50.0¢49,780

51.0¢5,269

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

44.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

44.00¢+0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

44.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

38.10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 43.50%, based on $1.8M in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 16, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.