AI · Polymarket

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?

2.95%

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 97.05% on "Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?", backed by $240 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $240

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.8¢ (126.7%)

Mid Price

3.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$7,813

Bid/Ask Imbalance

0% bid

Bids (Buy)

1.1¢8

1.0¢30

0.8¢17

0.7¢132

0.5¢20

0.4¢195

0.3¢26

0.2¢109

Asks (Sell)

4.9¢8

5.0¢5

5.9¢26

6.0¢51

73.9¢76

74.0¢1,094

97.0¢25

97.1¢100

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

45.96¢+838.06%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

71.83¢+1365.86%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

94.93¢+1837.40%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 2.95%, based on $240 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.