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Every Live Market

Real, live consensus probabilities from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Limitless — one place to see every active contract we track, from elections and Fed rate decisions to Oscar winners and NFL odds.

26 markets · updated 1:40:14 AM · refreshes every 90s
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Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▼ 2.524H
90.50%-953

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

90.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $53.1K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▲ 1724H
35.50%+182

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

35.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $30.1K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▼ 124H
7.50%+1233

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

7.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $25.9K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▲ 0.0524H
0.20%

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

0.20%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $25.2K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▲ 1.8524H
6.70%+1393

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

6.70%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $22.6K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▲ 824H
57.50%-135

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

57.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $22.2K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
▲ 23.524H
91.00%-1011

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?

91.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $18.9K
Polymarket logoPolymarket· AILive
0.05%

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $17.2K
Futuur· AILive
78.00%-355

December 31, 2026 — GPT-6 released by ...?

78.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $1.7K
Futuur· AILive
44.00%+127

September 30, 2026 — GPT-6 released by ...?

44.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $1.7K
Futuur· AILive
1.00%

July 31, 2026 — GPT-6 released by ...?

1.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $1.7K
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
10.00%+900

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?

10.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 19.6K Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
44.00%+127

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

44.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 2.0K Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
87.51%-701

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

87.51%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 510 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
81.57%-443

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

81.57%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 494 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
88.86%-798

Will OpenAI Astra beat the next version of Fable (after 5) on Artificial Analysis

88.86%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 257 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
81.18%-431

If Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?

81.18%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 200 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
52.52%-111

At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?

52.52%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 49 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
48.60%+106

Will a major bank get hacked by AI in 2026?

48.60%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 10 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
41.26%+142

WHO WILL WIN IN AN AI CHAD FIGHT? SIMON VS KALEB IN ALEX'S X SPACE LESGOW

41.26%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 1 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
84.14%-531

OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

84.14%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
62.89%-169

Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model

62.89%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
44.29%+126

1 month after Anthropic IPO, will their market cap be higher than launch day?

44.29%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
49.55%+102

Anthropic has a profitable quarter in 2027?

49.55%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Manifold logoManifold· AILive
14.86%+573

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

14.86%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Limitless logoLimitless· AILive
48.50%+106

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily

48.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $0

Browse The Full Catalog

40 real markets catalogued in AI

Every real Polymarket market this app has ever catalogued (see snapshots/snapshot-market-catalog.mts) — deeper real coverage than the live grid above can hold at once, refreshed on a real ~30-minute cycle rather than live-this-second.

MarketCategoryLast PriceLast Seen
AI Detection — What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?AI70%9d ago
OpenAI — What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?AI72%9d ago
Claude — What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?AI67%9d ago
Gen AI / Generative AI — What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?AI27.5%9d ago
Claude — What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?AI15.5%9d ago
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?AI5%10d ago
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?AI3%10d ago
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?AI2%10d ago
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?AI18%10d ago
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQeAI2%10d ago
Will SoundHound AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?AI9%10d ago
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027?AI3%10d ago
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?AI2%10d ago
Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?AI11%10d ago
AI bubble burst in 2026?AI12%10d ago
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?AI8%10d ago
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?AI6%10d ago
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?AI80%10d ago
Anthropic acquired before 2027?AI3%10d ago
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?AI2%10d ago
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?AI10%10d ago
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?AI23%10d ago
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?AI68%10d ago
OpenAI acquired before 2027?AI4%10d ago
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?AI11%10d ago
Anthropic IPO before 2027?AI88%10d ago
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?AI8%10d ago
OpenAI IPO before 2027?AI17%10d ago
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?AI14%10d ago
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?AI18%10d ago
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?AI8%10d ago
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?AI49%10d ago
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?AI40%10d ago
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?AI82%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?AI6%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?AI2%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?AI4%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?AI5%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?AI0%10d ago
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?AI1%10d ago
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