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Culture · Polymarket

Next Kimi K model released by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
98.20%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13919293949596979899100%98.20%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 98.8% in 14d (97.1–99.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.2K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.0%)
Mid Price
98.2¢
Total Depth
$7,003
Bid/Ask Imbalance
20% bid
Bids (Buy)
97.7¢155
96.4¢280
90.4¢40
90.3¢10
90.1¢200
90.0¢18
81.0¢5
80.0¢100
Asks (Sell)
98.7¢77
98.8¢40
99.0¢5
99.2¢860
99.7¢120
99.8¢200
99.9¢4,320
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
98.72¢+0.02%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
99.16¢+0.46%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
99.76¢+1.07%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?
27.14%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Next Kimi K model released by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 98.20%, based on $2.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.