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Culture · Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Trade on Polymarket →
28.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 1310203040506070%28.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 22.6% in 14d (18.9–26.8%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$82.4K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (3.5%)
Mid Price
28.5¢
Total Depth
$1,058,455
Bid/Ask Imbalance
8% bid
Bids (Buy)
28.0¢13,815
27.0¢18,532
26.0¢27,647
25.0¢95,252
24.0¢4,711
23.0¢4,356
22.0¢350
21.0¢2,790
Asks (Sell)
29.0¢240
30.0¢35,413
31.0¢16,367
32.0¢32,281
33.0¢8,200
34.0¢8,111
35.0¢8,650
36.0¢6,199
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
29.30¢+1.02%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
29.93¢+3.20%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
29.99¢+3.42%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
2.48%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 28.50%, based on $82.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.