AI · Polymarket

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 16%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

10.75%

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 89.25% on "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?", backed by $167 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $167

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

0.1¢ (0.9%)

Mid Price

10.8¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$64,529

Bid/Ask Imbalance

0% bid

Bids (Buy)

10.7¢343

10.6¢71

10.3¢816

10.2¢291

9.8¢61

9.0¢487

8.2¢33

7.7¢100

Asks (Sell)

10.8¢69

10.9¢20

12.0¢277

12.1¢200

12.4¢1,016

12.5¢960

12.6¢194

17.7¢50

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

12.02¢+11.34%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

24.88¢+130.34%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

73.09¢+576.76%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%

Same bet?

Similar AI Markets

Manifold

58.12%-139

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 334 Mana

Polymarket

0.05%

Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $102.4K

Manifold

85.40%-585

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

85.40%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 1.8K Mana

Manifold

14.86%+573

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

14.86%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 658 Mana

Manifold

77.84%-351

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

77.84%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 58 Mana

Manifold

28.00%+257

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

28.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 10 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 10.75%, based on $167 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.