AI · Polymarket

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?

96.00%

Model projection: 97.2% in 14d (94.7–98.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 96% on "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?", backed by $582 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $582
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.0¢ (2.1%)

Mid Price

96.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$15,613

Bid/Ask Imbalance

69% bid

Bids (Buy)

95.0¢111

94.0¢7,246

93.0¢1,510

92.0¢706

89.0¢7

54.0¢100

51.0¢26

50.0¢34

Asks (Sell)

97.0¢363

98.0¢2,615

99.0¢1,890

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

97.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

97.65¢+0.67%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

98.31¢+1.35%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%

Same bet?

Similar AI Markets

Manifold

58.12%-139

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

58.12%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 334 Mana

Manifold

85.40%-585

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

85.40%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 1.8K Mana

Polymarket

0.05%

Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $102.4K

Manifold

77.84%-351

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

77.84%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 58 Mana

Manifold

28.00%+257

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

28.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 10 Mana

Limitless

59.00%-144

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily

59.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $27.3K

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 96.00%, based on $582 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.