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AI · Polymarket

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Trade on Polymarket →
50.00%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13202530354045505560657075%49.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 50.2% in 14d (41.9–58.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.6K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
5.0¢ (10.1%)
Mid Price
49.5¢
Total Depth
$3,473
Bid/Ask Imbalance
14% bid
Bids (Buy)
47.0¢149
46.0¢53
43.0¢40
37.0¢50
32.0¢28
31.0¢30
30.0¢100
28.0¢6
Asks (Sell)
52.0¢188
53.0¢80
57.0¢135
58.0¢449
66.0¢29
67.0¢50
69.0¢48
70.0¢5
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
52.02¢+0.04%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
66.65¢+28.17%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
84.41¢+62.32%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
61.05%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 50.00%, based on $1.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.