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Culture · Kalshi

At least 5000 — What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

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34.00%
29.38% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 1320304050607080%37.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 35.4% in 14d (25.7–46.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$0
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 7 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?
42.01%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "At least 5000 — What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 34.00%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.