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Politics · Kalshi

Before Jan 2028 — Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
16.50%
10.66% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 1312141618202224262830%18.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 18.1% in 14d (15.9–20.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$52
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 16.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price16.50%
Spread + depth+1.50 pts
Fee5.74% of stake
Break-even probability19.03%
5556
Shares
$4,498
Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?
61.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Before Jan 2028 — Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 16.50%, based on $52 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 21, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.