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Culture · Polymarket

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Trade on Polymarket →
76.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 154045505560657075808590%76.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 80.0% in 14d (76.3–83.1%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$5.1K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.3%)
Mid Price
76.5¢
Total Depth
$31,235
Bid/Ask Imbalance
67% bid
Bids (Buy)
76.0¢1,707
75.0¢1,100
74.0¢1,131
73.0¢4,786
72.0¢6,001
71.0¢100
70.0¢112
69.0¢15
Asks (Sell)
77.0¢1,774
78.0¢95
79.0¢829
80.0¢873
81.0¢389
82.0¢521
83.0¢110
84.0¢40
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
77.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
77.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
87.07¢+13.08%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldSeptember 2026 the hottest ever?
35.68%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 76.50%, based on $5.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.