Skip to content
Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
AI · Polymarket

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
86.00%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13405060708090100%86.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 86.9% in 14d (84.2–89.3%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$318
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (2.3%)
Mid Price
86.0¢
Total Depth
$23,446
Bid/Ask Imbalance
27% bid
Bids (Buy)
85.0¢2,628
84.0¢1,290
83.0¢20
82.0¢20
72.0¢20
71.0¢20
27.0¢200
6.0¢100
Asks (Sell)
87.0¢1,789
88.0¢2,988
89.0¢2,054
90.0¢5,090
91.0¢6
92.0¢100
93.0¢173
94.0¢294
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
88.81¢+2.08%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
58.12%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 86.00%, based on $318 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.