Entertainment · Polymarket

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 6%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

5.50%

Model projection: 5.4% in 14d (4.6–6.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 94.5% on "Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?", backed by $1.2K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $1.2K
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 5.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price5.50%

Spread + depth+0.97 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability6.47%

15466

$14,466

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (18.2%)

Mid Price

5.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$724,985

Bid/Ask Imbalance

0% bid

Bids (Buy)

5.0¢27,595

4.0¢10,605

3.0¢39,867

2.0¢21,467

1.0¢2,100

Asks (Sell)

6.0¢8,263

7.0¢10,527

8.0¢96,688

9.0¢21,714

10.0¢645

11.0¢151

12.0¢60

13.0¢250

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

6.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

6.47¢+7.76%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

7.88¢+31.29%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday?

49.00%

Same bet?

Similar Entertainment Markets

Manifold

49.00%+104

Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday?

49.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 332 Mana

Manifold

11.24%+790

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)

11.24%Live price only —
no history published

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?

4.75%Live price only —
no history published

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?

66.00%Live price only —
no history published

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?

24.75%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $58.2K

Manifold

53.61%-116

Will we get a Trailer 4 for GTA VI?

53.61%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 5.50%, based on $1.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.