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Sports · Polymarket

Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
7.00%
5.3% calibrated
Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 160102030405060%7.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.2% in 14d (0.1–0.4%)-0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$0
Momentum
-0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 7.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price7.00%
Spread + depth+39.16 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability46.16%
2167
Shares
$1,167
Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
10.0¢ (142.9%)
Mid Price
7.0¢
Total Depth
$327
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
2.0¢27
1.0¢283
Asks (Sell)
12.0¢34
13.0¢100
20.0¢100
25.0¢100
35.0¢100
46.0¢50
47.0¢20
95.0¢11
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
22.71¢+89.22%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
46.16¢+284.63%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
46.16¢+284.63%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 7.00%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.