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Sports · Polymarket

Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
14.50%
13.7% calibrated
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 1568101214161820222426%14.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 14.2% in 14d (11.5–17.3%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$194
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 14.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price14.50%
Spread + depth+13.06 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability27.56%
3628
Shares
$2,628
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (20.7%)
Mid Price
14.5¢
Total Depth
$2,734
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
13.0¢60
12.0¢331
11.0¢240
10.0¢21
2.0¢70
1.0¢100
Asks (Sell)
16.0¢220
17.0¢85
18.0¢1,567
19.0¢20
20.0¢275
24.0¢50
25.0¢120
28.0¢5
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
17.10¢+6.89%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
27.56¢+72.28%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
46.59¢+191.21%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 14.50%, based on $194 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.