AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 57%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

69.25%

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 69.25% on "Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?", backed by $3.4K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $3.4K

Your call

The market says 69.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price69.25%

Spread + depth+12.97 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability82.22%

1216

$216

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.8¢ (4.1%)

Mid Price

69.1¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$9,790

Bid/Ask Imbalance

8% bid

Bids (Buy)

67.7¢20

67.6¢80

66.6¢30

66.2¢140

66.1¢20

35.9¢300

34.6¢20

32.2¢90

Asks (Sell)

70.5¢5

70.6¢148

70.9¢20

71.0¢40

72.0¢30

73.6¢23

79.5¢300

82.1¢39

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

70.60¢+0.14%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

82.22¢+16.62%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

95.71¢+35.76%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 69.25%, based on $3.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 3, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.