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Tech · Polymarket

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?

Trade on Polymarket →
22.50%
Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 150102030405060708090100%22.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 9.9% in 13d (6.0–16.1%)-0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.0K
Momentum
-0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 22.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price22.50%
Spread + depth+33.80 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability56.30%
1776
Shares
$776
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (13.3%)
Mid Price
22.5¢
Total Depth
$38,281
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
21.0¢52
20.0¢2,145
19.0¢87
16.0¢22
15.0¢3
8.0¢50
7.0¢5
5.0¢14
Asks (Sell)
24.0¢35
25.0¢64
26.0¢23
28.0¢55
29.0¢50
32.0¢130
34.0¢50
35.0¢35
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
28.49¢+18.73%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
56.30¢+134.57%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
84.52¢+252.15%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 22.50%, based on $1.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 16, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.