AI · Polymarket

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

58.00%

Model projection: 61.1% in 14d (55.9–66.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 58% on "Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?", backed by $2.1K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $2.1K
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

9.0¢ (15.4%)

Mid Price

58.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$10,227

Bid/Ask Imbalance

8% bid

Bids (Buy)

54.0¢30

48.0¢5

47.0¢63

43.0¢209

42.0¢15

40.0¢687

33.0¢5

32.0¢50

Asks (Sell)

63.0¢10

64.0¢73

65.0¢100

67.0¢246

69.0¢100

70.0¢225

71.0¢100

72.0¢100

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

64.40¢+2.22%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

70.43¢+11.80%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

90.59¢+43.80%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar AI Markets

Polymarket

0.05%

Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $172.9K

Manifold

77.84%-351

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

77.84%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 58 Mana

Manifold

28.00%+257

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

28.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 10 Mana

Limitless

75.00%-300

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily

75.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $14.9K

Manifold

16.43%+509

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?

16.43%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 1.4K Mana

Manifold

60.00%-150

Will @jim publish an article on his AI timelines by end-of-month?

60.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 84 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 58.00%, based on $2.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.