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AI · Polymarket

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
62.00%
Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 132030405060708090100%62.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 47.7% in 14d (35.8–59.8%)-0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$914
Momentum
-0.02pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (3.2%)
Mid Price
62.0¢
Total Depth
$1,515
Bid/Ask Imbalance
41% bid
Bids (Buy)
61.0¢235
60.0¢180
59.0¢20
51.0¢60
50.0¢20
48.0¢54
44.0¢73
43.0¢97
Asks (Sell)
63.0¢316
64.0¢104
65.0¢96
71.0¢20
75.0¢32
76.0¢253
88.0¢20
97.0¢27
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
63.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
76.74¢+21.82%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
76.74¢+21.82%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
58.12%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 62.00%, based on $914 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.