AI · Polymarket
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?
Trade on Polymarket →88.50%
Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 88.5% on "Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?", backed by $229 in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $229
- Momentum
- -0.00pt/day
Live Order Book Depth
Spread
1.0¢ (1.1%)
Mid Price
88.5¢
Total Depth (shown levels)
$10,167
Bid/Ask Imbalance
80% bid
Bids (Buy)
88.0¢23
87.0¢5,884
86.0¢443
85.0¢20
78.0¢100
77.0¢100
76.0¢260
75.0¢600
Asks (Sell)
89.0¢198
90.0¢820
91.0¢308
95.0¢12
96.0¢25
97.0¢6
98.0¢432
99.0¢415
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
89.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
89.91¢+1.02%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
93.41¢+4.95%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 88.50%, based on $229 in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.