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Culture · Polymarket

Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
66.50%
10 PM11 PMSeptember01 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM06 PM6264666870727476%66.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$5.8K

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (3.0%)
Mid Price
66.0¢
Total Depth
$3,007
Bid/Ask Imbalance
49% bid
Bids (Buy)
65.0¢498
64.0¢515
63.0¢159
62.0¢312
60.0¢200
28.0¢25
27.0¢150
26.0¢500
Asks (Sell)
67.0¢5
68.0¢180
69.0¢137
70.0¢267
71.0¢319
72.0¢50
89.0¢64
90.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
67.97¢+1.44%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
76.11¢+13.59%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
82.40¢+22.99%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
48.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 66.50%, based on $5.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.