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AI · Polymarket

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
72.50%
Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13455055606570758085%72.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 73.8% in 14d (66.2–80.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$110
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.4%)
Mid Price
72.5¢
Total Depth
$8,933
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
72.0¢298
71.0¢40
70.0¢20
34.0¢21
33.0¢15
32.0¢50
27.0¢51
26.0¢5
Asks (Sell)
73.0¢692
74.0¢107
75.0¢20
83.0¢50
84.0¢27
85.0¢10
86.0¢93
87.0¢606
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
73.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
77.87¢+6.67%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
91.93¢+25.93%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
58.12%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 72.50%, based on $110 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.