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AI · Polymarket

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 21, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.55%
Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 130510152025303540455055%0.55%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.3% in 14d (0.2–0.8%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$137
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.7¢ (127.3%)
Mid Price
0.5¢
Total Depth
$16,400
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.2¢150
0.1¢20
Asks (Sell)
0.9¢105
1.0¢55
2.0¢35
2.9¢37
3.0¢30
4.0¢20
7.5¢40
7.6¢80
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
8.27¢+819.37%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
26.51¢+2845.12%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
77.50¢+8511.01%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
58.12%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 21, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.55%, based on $137 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 22, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.