Entertainment · Polymarket

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 23%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

20.00%

Model projection: 14.6% in 14d (8.7–23.3%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 80% on "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?", backed by $21.3K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $21.3K
Momentum: -0.01pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.0¢ (10.0%)

Mid Price

20.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$6,362

Bid/Ask Imbalance

17% bid

Bids (Buy)

19.0¢38

18.0¢227

17.0¢184

16.0¢900

15.0¢3,231

14.0¢2,005

13.0¢5

12.0¢5

Asks (Sell)

21.0¢313

22.0¢2,250

23.0¢618

24.0¢1,967

25.0¢190

26.0¢118

27.0¢86

28.0¢97

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

21.33¢+1.58%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

22.63¢+7.76%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

41.94¢+99.72%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 20.00%, based on $21.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.