Forecasting Leaderboard
Ranked by calibration, not profit — because being up money on 95%-priced favourites is not a track record.
How this is ranked
Every paper position records the real market price at the moment it was opened, which makes it a forecast rather than just a bet. That means the same scoring this site applies to the markets themselves — Brier score, and skill against a baseline — applies to the person.
The baseline is each forecaster's own base rate, so the board cannot be farmed by only calling near-certainties: doing that raises the baseline exactly as much as it raises the score. A minimum of ten graded positions is enforced in the query itself, so a perfect record built on three lucky calls can never appear here at all.
Nobody qualifies here yet
A forecaster needs ten graded positions before appearing, and a position is only graded once its market actually resolves. Open a paper portfolio and your own positions start being scored from the moment their markets settle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why isn't this ranked by profit?
Because virtual profit rewards staking heavily on near-certain favourites, which is neither skill nor information. Someone up $4,000 on 95%-priced favourites and someone up $400 with a flat calibration curve are telling you completely different things, and only the second is a track record. P&L is still shown — it just doesn't set the order.
What is a skill score?
One minus the ratio of a forecaster's Brier score to the Brier score of a baseline that always predicts that forecaster's own historical hit rate. Above zero means genuinely better than their own base rate; zero means no better than guessing at their own average.
Why are the names not real names?
Accounts store an email address and nothing else — there are no display names to publish, and publishing emails would be a real disclosure. Each row carries a stable pseudonym derived from the account id, which reveals nothing the id itself wouldn't, and the id is never published either.
Open your own paper portfolio →How this site scores the markets themselves →