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Economics · Polymarket

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
86.50%
Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 29Wed 30OctoberFri 02Sat 03Oct 04Mon 05Tue 06Wed 0776788082848688909294%86.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 91.0% in 14d (90.0–92.0%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$30.0K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 86.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price86.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability87.00%
1149
Shares
$149
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.2%)
Mid Price
86.5¢
Total Depth
$1,051,848
Bid/Ask Imbalance
25% bid
Bids (Buy)
86.0¢2,096
85.0¢9,321
84.0¢158,470
83.0¢32,052
82.0¢59,732
81.0¢1,350
80.0¢375
79.0¢2,100
Asks (Sell)
87.0¢29,491
88.0¢96,849
89.0¢687,991
90.0¢1,960
93.0¢286
94.0¢3,333
95.0¢4,150
96.0¢6,693
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 86.50%, based on $30.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 9, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.