Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 90% on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?", backed by $50.2K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $50.2K
- Momentum
- +0.00pt/day
Your call
The market says 10.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
Live Order Book Depth
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
no history published
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
no history published
ManifoldWill SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early)
no history published
ManifoldWill SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)
no history published
ManifoldWill trump say or write "effective altruism"?
no history published
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 10.00%, based on $50.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.