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Finance · Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14?

Trade on Polymarket →
98.65%
Live Bitcoin Price$78,419▲ 1.64% 24h· via CoinGecko
09 PMSep 1303 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMMon 1403 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM2030405060708090100%98.70%

Stats

24h Volume
$127.0K

Your call

The market says 98.7%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price98.65%
Spread + depth+0.33 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability98.98%
1010
Shares
$10
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.3¢ (0.3%)
Mid Price
98.8¢
Total Depth
$80,584
Bid/Ask Imbalance
43% bid
Bids (Buy)
98.6¢400
98.5¢500
98.4¢185
98.3¢100
98.2¢100
98.1¢7,100
98.0¢40
97.4¢300
Asks (Sell)
98.9¢158
99.0¢1,498
99.3¢1,857
99.5¢10,100
99.6¢1,250
99.7¢3,667
99.8¢5,500
99.9¢21,653
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
98.90¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
98.98¢+0.09%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
99.38¢+0.48%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifoldwill bitcoin go below 65k at any time, before september 2028?
59.94%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 98.65%, based on $127.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 14, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.