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Finance · Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 24?

Trade on Polymarket →
56.50%
Live Bitcoin Price$84,158▼ 2.99% 24h· via CoinGecko
09 PMWed 2303 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMThu 2403 AM4648505254565860626466%56.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$49.9K

Your call

The market says 56.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price56.50%
Spread + depth+1.53 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability58.03%
1723
Shares
$723
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.8%)
Mid Price
56.5¢
Total Depth
$295,738
Bid/Ask Imbalance
7% bid
Bids (Buy)
56.0¢1,768
55.0¢1,250
54.0¢3,846
53.0¢5,400
52.0¢5
51.0¢210
50.0¢608
49.0¢150
Asks (Sell)
57.0¢155
58.0¢1,355
59.0¢8,655
60.0¢368
61.0¢400
62.0¢413
63.0¢534
64.0¢611
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
57.11¢+0.20%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
58.03¢+1.81%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
63.38¢+11.20%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldBitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?
62.01%
Same bet?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 24?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 56.50%, based on $49.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 24, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.