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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
10.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 2705101520253035%10.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 12.7% in 14d (9.8–16.3%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$63
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 10.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price10.50%
Spread + depth+14.08 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability24.58%
4068
Shares
$3,068
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (9.5%)
Mid Price
10.5¢
Total Depth
$2,233
Bid/Ask Imbalance
27% bid
Bids (Buy)
10.0¢315
9.0¢210
8.0¢2,049
7.0¢545
6.0¢1,016
5.0¢2,159
3.0¢1,918
2.0¢3,489
Asks (Sell)
11.0¢310
12.0¢282
13.0¢1,005
14.0¢822
15.0¢50
17.0¢13
22.0¢23
30.0¢125
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
11.92¢+8.41%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
24.58¢+123.47%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
33.28¢+202.57%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 10.50%, based on $63 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.