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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
40.50%
09 PMFri 1103 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSat 1203 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSep 1303 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM15202530354045505560%41.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$43.0K

Your call

The market says 40.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price40.50%
Spread + depth+4.19 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability44.69%
2238
Shares
$1,238
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (4.9%)
Mid Price
41.0¢
Total Depth
$23,269
Bid/Ask Imbalance
16% bid
Bids (Buy)
40.0¢168
39.0¢135
38.0¢760
37.0¢604
36.0¢756
35.0¢140
34.0¢1,013
33.0¢4,762
Asks (Sell)
42.0¢286
43.0¢415
44.0¢281
45.0¢389
46.0¢467
47.0¢1,957
48.0¢1,979
49.0¢1,321
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
42.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
44.69¢+6.40%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
53.23¢+26.74%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 40.50%, based on $43.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 14, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.